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IMF slashes US growth forecast and warns of rising risks to the global economy

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The global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is weakening and risks are rising, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF on Tuesday slashed its 2021 growth forecast for the United States by one full percentage point to 6%, the biggest reduction suffered by any G7 economy in its latest World Economic Outlook.

The cut reflects disruptions to supply chains and softening consumption in the third quarter, the IMF said.’

The revision comes days after Goldman Sachs cut its growth forecasts for the US economy this year and next, citing weaker consumer spending and the winding down of the government’s Covid-19 relief programs.

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Goldman Sachs gets even gloomier on the US economy
Goldman Sachs gets even gloomier on the US economy
The IMF now expects the global economy to grow 5.9% in 2021, 0.1 percentage points lower than the July forecast. The outlook for 2022 remained unchanged. Despite the modest revision, the organization said that economic risks have increased.
“Rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants have increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome,” it said. “Policy choices have become more difficult, confronting multidimensional challenges — subdued employment growth, rising inflation, food insecurity, the setback to human capital accumulation, and climate change — with limited room to maneuver.”

The organization also cut its 2021 growth forecasts for China, Japan and Germany, the world’s next largest economies. It said that shortages of materials were weighing on manufacturing output in Germany, while in Japan emergency coronavirus measures implemented between July and September had dented the recovery.
China’s economy is expected to grow 8% in 2021, slightly less than the July forecast due to a scaling back of public spending, the IMF added. It also flagged “large scale, disorderly corporate debt defaults,” including in China’s property sector, as a risk to financial markets that could “reverberate widely.”

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The most influential and award-winning tech journalist based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. President of Bangladesh Tech Journalists umbrella association name Bangladesh ICT Journalist Forum(BIJF).He works for The Daily Ittefaq and is responsible for covering news, editing posts, reviewing devices, producing video reviews, and communicating with the reader base. Journalist, editor, technology, personal technology, reviews, features, analysis, media.

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U.S. charges two Chinese nationals with obstructing Huawei case, source says

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The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has unsealed charges against two alleged DPRC spies who are accused of attempting to obstruct a federal prosecution against Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei.

In a criminal complaint dated October 20 and made public on Monday, the U.S. claims that two Chinese intelligence officers, Guochun He (known as “Dong He”) and Zheng Wang (known as “Zen Wang”), attempted to bribe a U.S. law-enforcement official to obtain what they believed was inside information about the U.S. criminal case against a “global telecommunications company based in China.” The complaint doesn’t name the company, but the details match up with the known prosecution of the company. Huawei did not respond to a request for comment.

The complaint alleges that He and Wang “attempted to direct a person they believed they recruited as an asset” inside a U.S. government law enforcement agency “to obtain confidential information regarding potential new charges to be brought against [Huawei] for the purpose of obstructing justice.”

The government alleges He and Wang first cultivated their relationship with the law enforcement employee, who is not named, in February 2017, but that person “subsequently began working as a double agent for the U.S. government.”

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The men are accused of attempting to extract confidential information about witnesses and trial evidence in the Huawei case and paid the double agent, referred to as “GE-1”, $61,000 in bitcoin, cash and jewelery for what they believed was insider information about the Justice Department’s pending prosecution of the China-based company.

At one point in October 2021, the indictment alleges, the undercover agent passed a single-page document to one of the Chinese intelligence officers, classified as “SECRET”, that detailed U.S. plans to arrest two principals from Huawei living in China. They paid the undercover agent $41,000 just for that single page.

“Far more than an effort to collect information or intelligence, the actions of the PRC intelligence officers charged in this case must be called out for what they are: an extraordinary intervention by agents of a foreign government to interfere with the integrity of the U.S. criminal justice system, compromise a U.S. government employee and obstruct the enforcement of U.S. law to benefit a PRC-based commercial enterprise,” said Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew G. Olsen. “The Department of Justice will not abide nation-state actors meddling in U.S. criminal process and investigations, and will not tolerate foreign interference with the fair administration of justice.”

If convicted, He and Wang face up to 60 years and 20 years in prison, respectively.

The case was one of three unsealed on Monday relating to alleged Chinese interference in the U.S. justice system. One in New Jersey charges three Chinese intelligence agents with conspiring to act in the U.S. as illegal agents on behalf of a foreign government, while another in the Eastern District of New York accuses several people working on behalf of the Chinese government of “engaging in a multi-year campaign of threats and harassment to force a U.S. resident to return to China,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said Monday.

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Pelosi to visit Taiwan despite China warning military action

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Several Taiwan media outlets reported late on Monday that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan on Tuesday and spend the night in Taipei though China has repeatedly warned that its military will take action if she does.

The Chinese Army “won’t sit idly by” if Pelosi visited Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday during a regular press briefing in Beijing.

Despite China’s threats over a possible Taiwan visit by Nancy Pelosi, “US military preparation” is still underway, Politico has reported.

The Liberty Times newspaper said Pelosi was scheduled to visit Taiwan’s parliament on Wednesday morning before continuing her Asia trip.

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The United Daily News, also citing unnamed sources, said “related officials” were told to receive Pelosi, who is set to arrive in the capital Taipei on Tuesday evening at the soonest and spend the night there.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry said it has no comment on reports on Pelosi’s travel plan and no further information to share with media.

It would be a landmark move by a US official and raise the risk of a military confrontation given China views Taiwan as its territory. Pelosi would become the first sitting speaker since Newt Gingrich to go to the democratically-ruled island in 25 years. The Liberty Times is one of Taiwan’s pro-ruling party newspapers. 

Earlier on Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it would be “a gross interference in China’s internal affairs” if Pelosi visits Taiwan, and warned that it would lead to “very serious developments and consequences.”

Nancy Pelosi might visit Taiwan during her Asia tour, according to a senior Taiwanese government official and a US official, despite warnings from Biden administration officials, who are worried about China’s response to such a high-profile visit amid intense speculation that she may risk the wrath of Beijing by visiting Taiwan.

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Pelosi left Taiwan out of the itinerary in a statement on Sunday announcing the Asia trip, which will also includes stops in Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi would be the most-senior US official to visit Taiwan since 1997.

US officials say China may be confusing Pelosi’s visit with an official administration visit, since she and Biden are both Democrats. Administration officials are concerned that China doesn’t separate Pelosi from Biden much, if at all.

Biden said last month that the US military opposed Pelosi visiting Taiwan, though since then has refused to elaborate on the warnings. The White House has said it is up to the House speaker where she travels, and that they have little say in her decision.

Many Democrats and Republicans in Congress said it was Pelosi’s right to travel to Taiwan. Other members appeared to be more cautious about the diplomatically sensitive trip, reports CNN. 

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The administration takes extra care for Pelosi’s security when she travels overseas because she is in the presidential line of succession. Defense department officials are working around the clock on monitoring any Chinese movements in the region and securing a plan to keep her safe.

The Chinese embassy to the United States has objected to her expected trip, which was planned for April before Pelosi tested positive for Covid-19, urging members of Congress to tell the speaker not to make it.

Pelosi has long been a critic of the Chinese Communist Party. In recent years, she voiced support for the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

Administration officials are concerned Pelosi’s trip comes at a particularly tense moment, as President Xi Jinping is expected to seek an unprecedented third term at the upcoming Chinese Communist Party congress, increasing the political stakes.

The timing means Xi can’t afford to look weak in response to what Beijing views as foreign interference in its affairs, reports Bloomberg. 

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Pelosi is accompanied by five fellow House Democrats, including Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Gregory Meeks of New York.

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Russia warns West against long-range weapons for Ukraine

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Moscow warned Monday that it would respond to Western supplies of long-range weapons to Ukraine by stepping up efforts to push Kyiv’s forces further from its border.

“The more long-range weapons you supply, the further we will push away from our territory” the line of Ukrainian forces, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Moscow would hit new targets if the West supplies Ukraine with long-range missiles.

Washington and London have defied Putin’s warnings against supplying Kyiv with advanced weapons, saying they would send long-range missile systems to Ukraine.

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The US last week announced it would give Kyiv its high mobility artillery rocket system, known as HIMARS, which can simultaneously launch multiple precision-guided missiles and is superior in range and precision to existing systems Ukraine has.

Britain said Monday it will mirror the United States and send long-range missile systems to Ukraine too.

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