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Bangladesh to become 24th largest economy by 2036

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Bangladesh is set to become the 24th largest economy out of 191 countries by 2036 owing to its ability to attract large foreign investments, the rising RMG demand, and macroeconomic stability, says the CEBR.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) disclosed the findings in its annual World Economic League Table (WELT 2022) report on Sunday, stating that Bangladesh has been among the world’s fastest growing economies over the last decade.

The country is forecast to place 41st in 2022 up from its current position of 42, reaching the 34th place in 2026, before eventually jumping to 24th in 2036. This represents an economic boom during the ongoing, as well as, the next decade.

Previously, the nation held 58th, 59th, and 46th positions in 2006, 2011, and 2016 respectively, indicating an upward trend in economic performance and consistency in growth.

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As of 2021, the think tank classifies Bangladesh as a lower middle-income country.

In the report, the Bangladesh government’s efforts to maintain a low debt-to-GDP ratio and operate a fiscal deficit of 5.9% in FY21 was mentioned in glowing terms.

On the other hand, the Covid-19 mortality rate was observed to be comparatively lower than most countries worldwide – as of mid-December 2021 – with more than half of the residents vaccinated with at least one dose. It stated that the nation’s vaccination drive was in line with global standards.

Apart from rising international demand for ready-made garments (RMG), which ensures a hefty amount of income from exports, the report mentioned that a large volume of foreign investments is entering the country’s telecommunication industry driven by a competent workforce skilled in information and communication technology.

Over the last few years, China has invested heavily in Bangladesh’s economy as its strategic location provides an ease of trade accessibility via the Indian Ocean.

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The report also mentioned that despite the coronavirus pandemic, the country’s economy expanded by 3.5% in 2020, a rare achievement compared to international standards. This was due to the strong remittance inflows and rebound of exports.

The CEBR expects Bangladesh to have 4.6% economic growth this year.

However, the report mentioned that the economy might face multiple hurdles while achieving a medium to long term outlook as it is yet to diversify exports beyond RMG, incorporate sustainable production processes for zero net emissions, and address infrastructural gaps for reducing disparities across geographical regions.

India has been holding the top position in the South Asian region since the first edition of the report came out in 2009, and is forecasted to become the 3rd largest economy by 2031.

Bangladesh is currently the second largest economy in the region, says the report, and will continue to keep its position till 2036 with a GDP size of $884 billion at constant prices (currently $325 billion).

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Pakistan (46th) holds the third position followed by Sri Lanka (69th), Nepal (99th), Maldives (154th), and Bhutan (164th) in South Asia.

The US (1st), China (2nd), and Japan (3rd) are currently the top three economies in the world, and it is forecasted that China will become the largest within the next decade.

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Bangladesh

22 Fake Projects Exposed in Tk 19,000 crore ICT Embezzlement Scheme

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During the previous Awami League government, 22 projects were fabricated to embezzle Tk 19,000 crore from the information and communication technology sector. After taking office, the interim government halted these projects and directed Project Directors (PDs) to cease all purchases. Additionally, a high-level, seven-member investigation team, led by an additional secretary, has been established to probe the matter.

Findings reveal that most of the 22 projects were initiated in 2016, with some scheduled to run until 2027. In several cases, project budgets were repeatedly increased. Each project was approved by policymakers of the previous government, with funds released based on their direct decisions and assigned to selected firms for procurement. Upon discovering these irregularities in the ICT sector, interim government officials voiced strong disapproval and instructed the inquiry committee to conduct a thorough investigation. The committee has already commenced its work. 

Officials stated that the investigation is focused on three key aspects of the projects: the amount of money embezzled, the government and political figures involved, and the details of the institutions awarded the contracts.

The investigation found that the largest project under the Directorate of Information and Communication Technology was the Digital Connectivity (EDC) initiative, valued at Tk 5,923.73 crore. This project, launched in December 2021, is scheduled to run until November 2026. Joint Secretary Tanzina Islam, appointed as the project director, stated that she could not provide detailed information but confirmed to Bangladesh Pratidin that work worth Tk 200 crore has been completed so far. 

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The next largest project is the “Enhancing Digital Government and Economy” (EDGE) project, valued at Tk 2,541 crore, with Joint Secretary Sakhawat Hossain serving as its Project Director. The third-largest project, a Tk 1,846 crore initiative, involves establishing IT/Hi-Tech Parks across 12 districts (first revised project). The fourth-largest, valued at Tk 1,534 crore, is the “Sheikh Hasina Institute of Frontier Technology.”

Among the 22 projects, the smallest is the Tk 27 crore “Education Online for Initiation-Skill Development.” While Mohammad Kabir Hossain is listed as the Project Director, his identity details were not provided. Most Project Directors declined to share specifics about their projects with Bangladesh Pratidin. 

The Tk 837 crore “Sheikh Kamal IT Training and Incubation Center” (covering 11 projects, 1st Revised) faced delays despite being initiated in 2020, Project Director Raja Muhammad Abdul Hai told Bangladesh Pratidin. He noted that while the project is currently on hold, its budget may be reduced.

Additional Secretary Manwara Ishrat, the Project Director of the Tk 287 crore “Empowerment of Women Through Technology” (Phase 2) project, reported that Tk 187 crore has already been spent, with Tk 78 crore allocated for the current year. When asked if these projects were initiated with embezzlement in mind, Information and Technology Department Secretary Sheesh Haider Chowdhury told Bangladesh Pratidin that due to numerous concerns surrounding these projects, all related procurements were halted by the current government at the outset.

Projects have been suspended at their current stages, with no new work being undertaken. He stated that the primary focus is on evaluating the transparency of the procurement process, specifically whether contracts were awarded with bias. Additionally, he noted that the investigation will examine whether project costs were inflated, such as if tasks valued at Tk 5 were billed at Tk 20.

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He mentioned that a high-level, seven-member committee has been formed to address these issues, led by an additional secretary and including audit and legal experts. However, he emphasized that they are not waiting for the committee’s final report. For projects under scrutiny—such as one where only five out of seven floors have been completed—work is being halted. He also pointed out that some projects involved land acquisition in rural areas, but if developed, these areas would lack people to utilize them. One such site in Patuakhali has already been canceled.

He added that once the investigation committee’s report is received, the nature and extent of the corruption in these projects will be revealed, along with the total amount involved.  

A beautiful building with modern facilities has been constructed near former minister Zunaid Ahmed Palak’s residence in Singra, Natore, and advanced computers were purchased with a foreign loan. However, there has been no activity at the site. I recently visited the location myself and have tasked the UNO with overseeing the matter. The secretary confirmed that not only will the embezzlement be investigated, but also those involved in these irregularities. Efforts are underway to gather details on which individuals in our department were involved, which political figures were connected, and which firms were awarded the contracts.

The controversial 22 projects include a range of large-scale initiatives, such as the Tk 330 crore Mobile Games and Application Skill Development Project, the Tk 855 crore Aspire to Innovate (A2I) Project, and the Tk 27 crore Initiation-Skill Development Education Online project. Other notable projects are the Tk 442 crore Establishment of Innovation and Entrepreneurship Development Academy (3rd Revised), the Tk 158 crore Enrichment of Bengali Language in Information Technology through Research and Development (1st Revised), and the Tk 30 crore Digital Sylhet City Project (2nd Revised). Additionally, the Tk 504 crore Establishment of Connectivity in Telecommunication Underprivileged Areas (Connected Bangladesh) Project, the Tk 167 crore BGD-E-Govt Project, and the Tk 2,541 crore Enhancing Digital Government and Economy (EDGE) Project are also under scrutiny. Smaller initiatives, such as the Tk 49 crore Government Video Conferencing Platform Strengthening Project and the Tk 8 crore Partnerships for a More Tolerant, Inclusive Bangladesh (PTIB), have also raised concerns. These projects have become the focus of controversy due to allegations of financial mismanagement and lack of transparency.

In addition, there are several high-value projects under the Bangladesh Hi-Tech Park Authority, including the Tk 837 crore Sheikh Kamal IT Training and Incubation Center (11 projects, 1st Revised), the Tk 1,886 crore IT/Hi-Tech Parks at the district level (12 districts, 1st Revised), and the Tk 533 crore Sheikh Kamal IT Training and Incubation Center Establishment (2nd Revised) Project. Other significant initiatives include the Tk 431 crore Bangabandhu Hi-Tech City-II Supporting Infrastructure Project (2nd Revised), the Tk 353 crore Digital Entrepreneurship and Innovation Ecosystem Development Project, and the Tk 74 crore Bangladesh-India Digital Services and Employment Training (BDSET) Center. The Tk 1,534 crore Sheikh Hasina Institute of Frontier Technology and the Tk 1,114 crore Sheikh Kamal IT Training and Incubation Center (14 projects) also fall under scrutiny. 

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Additionally, the Directorate of Information and Communication Technology oversees three major projects: the Tk 936 crore Digital Labs Setup in Educational Institutions (2nd Phase), the Tk 5,923 crore Establishment of Digital Connectivity (EDC) Project, and the Tk 287 crore Empowerment of Women through Technology (2nd Phase) Project.

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Bailey Road Fire |  a wake-up call for commercial buildings and beyond

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M. Mahmudur Rashid

Vice President,Electronics Safety and Security Association of Bangladesh – ESSAB

We always talk about the unsafe conditions of old Dhaka, but the tragic incident of Bailey Road is an example of how we are building a new Dhaka. It is not an accident; it is the result of our actions. From the building owner to the authorities, everyone is equally responsible. Unplanned restaurants have been built on every floor of many multi-storied buildings. If not aware now, dire consequences are waiting for us. We have to think again, which is more expensive? The price of safety equipment or the price of life!


Building on Bailey Road – Green Cozy Cottage has permission from Rajuk as a mixed-use (commercial office and residential apartments), building type: E and R. It is absolutely illegal to set up a commercial kitchen/restaurant in a building without proper permission and occupancy approval. Green Cozy Cottage should have fire safety plans approved by the Fire Service and Civil Defence.

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The building should have fire exits with fire doors, evacuation paths, fire alarm systems and fire-fighting systems. Apart from that, a commercial kitchen/restaurant kitchen hood should have a specially designed automatic wet chemical type fire suppression system. Fire protection systems for a typical office or shopping area and a restaurant are not the same. Each restaurant had a live fire inside the building. They should also have a fire-separated area for storing cooking oil and gas.

But, unfortunately, Green Cozy Cottage has no fire exit with a fire door, no fire hydrant system and no kitchen fire suppression system in any of the restaurants. There were large LPG gas cylinders on each landing of the stairs. Here are some recommendations to prevent these types of fire hazards – 

Responsibility of building owner/user-


•    Building construction according to BNBC.
•    Do not change occupancy without proper authorization and arrangements.
•    Maintain proper fire exits with fire doors, emergency lighting systems, fire alarm systems and fire hydrant systems.
•    Install automatic fire sprinkler systems where required.
•    Install wet chemical-type kitchen suppression systems for kitchen hoods.
•    Store cooking oil, LPG gas and other flammable items in fire-separate zones. It also requires permission to do so.
•    A refuge area is recommended in multi-storied buildings to take shelter in case of a fire accident.
•    Use high-quality electrical appliances, accessories, electrical wiring and ovens.
•    Use proper ventilation and fire-rated dampers in central HVAC ducts.
•    Use CO2 or ABC powder extinguishers with a minimum capacity of 6 kg per 550 square feet area.
•    Use wet chemical extinguishers for class K fires (cooking oil/fat).
•    Regularly maintain and check all electrical and safety equipment.
•    Every establishment needs a trained rescue and fire-fighting team.
•    Arrange regular fire drills, at least once every six months.

Government responsibility

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•    Ensure enforcement of building codes and make necessary renovations
•    Facilitate the import of fire safety equipment, all establishments including commercial buildings need duty free facilities to import fire safety equipment like export-oriented factories.
•    Need to reduce the 7.5% VAT on the supply of fire safety equipment and 15% VAT on the consultancy service of fire safety plan.
•    Prevent import and marketing of defective and substandard fire safety equipment
•    Encourage banks to invest in procurement of fire safety equipment on easy terms
•    Popularize fire insurance.
•    Take action against those who construct dangerous buildings and structures in violation of the law
•    Incorporate fire safety and disaster management into the education system
•    Incentive package needed for entrepreneurs to start manufacturing and investing in fire safety equipment business in Bangladesh.
•    Build adequate fire hydrants on roads and reservoirs in cities
•    Enhancing fire service capacity through new technology and manpower
Public Responsibilities:
•    Avoid renting and using unsafe buildings
•    Get basic training in the use of fire safety equipment
•    Construct buildings/structures by building codes and fire safety regulations
•    Install proper fire safety equipment in every house, office, shop, and factory.
•    Be careful when using all types of electrical and gas appliances
•    Follow all safety instructions and signage.

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Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s apparel export to USA dips over 25% in 2023

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Bangladesh’s apparel shipments to the United States, its single largest export destination in 2023, declined 25% year on year to $7.29 billion due to high inflation caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the US was $9.72 billion in 2022, according to the US Department of Commerce’s Office of Textiles and Apparel (Otexa) data.

The data also mentioned that the country’s overall apparel imports also declined 22.04 % year on year to $77.84 billion, while the import value was $99.86 billion a year ago.

In terms of volume, Bangladesh RMG export to the USA in 2023 also plunged about 28% to 2.25 billion square metres from 3.13 billion square metres in 2022, according to the Otexa data.

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Talking to The Business Standard, Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Faruque Hassan said that the global apparel market was very volatile in 2023 as every country has reduced their imports due to high inflation driven by the Russia-Ukraine war.

He said that the largest apparel importer country – the US – also decreased their consumption due to the high inflation in 2023.

He said Bangladesh was not the only country which experienced negative growth in apparel export to the US market; every exporting country had the same experience in 2023.

The BGMEA president hoped that this market will be better in the coming days.

He also mentioned that the US inflation and interest would be stable, which may help the market rebound in coming months.

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The share of Bangladeshi apparel in the US market was about 10% in in 2022, while it fell to 9.37% last year.

However, Bangladesh’s position remained unchanged as the third-largest apparel exporter to the US market after China and Vietnam, which occupied their positions with 20.96% and 18.21% share respectively.

The OTEXA data showed, in 2023, Chinese apparel export to the USA fell 10.83% to $16.32 billion from $21.75 billion a year ago.

Vietnam and India’s apparel exports in 2023 decreased 22.29% and 21.42% respectively.

Indonesia and Cambodia’s apparel export to the United States fell 25.19% and 23.58% respectively in the year.

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